I hear a lot and read a lot from "experts" who constantly make determinations about the market of today based on their experience from the past. Traditionally, making predictions based on the past is a good way to gauge what may happen. But you better take notice of the key word in that last sentence "what MAY happen". There are no guarantees and no one can truly predict the future. That's why you've never seen a news report that reads "psychic wins lottery."
In times like these, with all due respect, all bets are off and there's really no one that knows what will happen. Take ten experts, ask them how to fix the market and when it will turn around, and they will give you ten different answers. It's because they don't have a clue and like the rest of us they are taking shots in the dark.
There are no Realtors in the business that were practicing during the Great Depression, and even if there were, times have changed so much it still wouldn't help them. So while we like to track past market statistics in order to make an educated assumption as to what we will face in the future, it doesn't always mean that our assumptions will come true.
In 1861, America went through the Civil War. In 1914 there was World War 1 and in 1939 there was the start of World War 2. Following this time line of history, we could assume that every 40 to 50 years we have a catastrophic war, but right now we're past due. I don't need your history lesson here, I know that I didn't mention Vietnam, Korea, the first Gulf War, Afghanistan, or Iraq. I just used these for a loose example.
The fact is that when you study history, there are many things that are possible. There are many cycles to life that simply never came back around. So, I don't believe that anyone whose in the market today really knows where it's headed, and I think it's time that we accepted that fact. The only thing we can do is prepare the best that we can and seize every opportunity that we can. And the second you think that you know what's going to happen, that's when life throws you a curve.
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JL Boney, III - Columbia, SC Realtor - Russell and Jeffcoat Real Estate
I specialize in Columbia, SC real estate and the surrounding areas, including Blythewood, SC, Kershaw County, Fairfield County, and Lexington, SC. If you are in the market to buy or sell a home in Columbia, SC or any of the surrounding areas, I would love the opportunity to speak with to see how I can help. Thanks for reading and feel free to contact me if I can be of service to you.
Office- 803-788-1450 Cell- 803-730-9601 Email- jlboney@russellandjeffcoat.com
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You're right, JL. These are unprecedented, exponential times. Markets are cyclical but how big or small or frequent the cycles are...like you said, all bets = OFF. :)
These are unconventional times we live in. To think you can tell what is going to happen next by what happened yesterday is bieng real naive!
"Take ten experts, ask them how to fix the market and when it will turn around, and they will give you ten different answers".
Ain't that the truth! All we do with historical market data is use it to show folks the realities of the market TODAY, not tomorrow, not next week, not next year.
JL ---- you are right -- so many "older" Realtors say all the time -- who this is just another cycle -- real estate just cycles -- I know they believe that, but I agree with you.
Happy Holidays
Very true JLB ! And so we just go one day at a time take on each individual challenge in the most logical way, based on the people and facts of that transaction.
I often have 20 yr 'experts' tell me I should be doing things differently - the funny thing is that I doubled their production this year ?!??!
Cheers JL !
JL
We can't predict the future and we should learn for the past.
Good luck and success.
Lou Ludwig
JL, you are so right! We can learn from the past, but we can't expect that is will just repeat itself.