JL's Columbia SC Real Estate Blog: When Will We Accept That Knowing a Ton About History May Not Help Us in the Present

When Will We Accept That Knowing a Ton About History May Not Help Us in the Present

Columbia, SC Real Estate I hear a lot and read a lot from "experts" who constantly make determinations about the market of today based on their experience from the past. Traditionally, making predictions based on the past is a good way to gauge what may happen. But you better take notice of the key word in that last sentence "what MAY happen". There are no guarantees and no one can truly predict the future. That's why you've never seen a news report that reads "psychic wins lottery."

 In times like these, with all due respect, all bets are off and there's really no one that knows what will happen. Take ten experts, ask them how to fix the market and when it will turn around, and they will give you ten different answers. It's because they don't have a clue and like the rest of us they are taking shots in the dark.

Columbia, SC Real Estate There are no Realtors in the business that were practicing during the Great Depression, and even if there were, times have changed so much it still wouldn't help them. So while we like to track past market statistics in order to make an educated assumption as to what we will face in the future, it doesn't always mean that our assumptions will come true.

 In 1861, America went through the Civil War. In 1914 there was World War 1 and in 1939 there was the start of World War 2. Following this time line of history, we could assume that every 40 to 50 years we have a catastrophic war, but right now we're past due. I don't need your history lesson here, I know that I didn't mention Vietnam, Korea, the first Gulf War, Afghanistan, or Iraq. I just used these for a loose example.

 The fact is that when you study history, there are many things that are possible. There are many cycles to life that simply never came back around. So, I don't believe that anyone whose in the market today really knows where it's headed, and I think it's time that we accepted that fact. The only thing we can do is prepare the best that we can and seize every opportunity that we can. And the second you think that you know what's going to happen, that's when life throws you a curve.

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JL Boney, III - Columbia, SC Realtor - Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate

 I specialize in Columbia, SC real estate and the surrounding areas, including Blythewood, SC, Kershaw County, Fairfield County, and Lexington, SC. If you are in the market to buy or sell a home in Columbia, SC or any of the surrounding areas, I would love the opportunity to speak with to see how I can help. Thanks for reading and feel free to contact me if I can be of service to you.

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Comment balloon 7 commentsJL Boney, III • December 17 2009 01:25PM

Comments

You're right, JL. These are unprecedented, exponential times. Markets are cyclical but how big or small or frequent the cycles are...like you said, all bets = OFF. :)

Posted by Candice A. Donofrio, 928-201-4BHC (4242) call/text (Next Wave RE Investments LLC Bullhead City AZ Commercial RE Broker) almost 9 years ago

These are unconventional times we live in.  To think you can tell what is going to happen next by what happened yesterday is bieng real naive!

Posted by William Feela, Realtor, Whispering Pines Realty 651-674-5999 No. (WHISPERING PINES REALTY) almost 9 years ago

"Take ten experts, ask them how to fix the market and when it will turn around, and they will give you ten different answers".

Ain't that the truth!  All we do with historical market data is use it to show folks the realities of the market TODAY, not tomorrow, not next week, not next year.

Posted by Lisa Heindel, New Orleans Real Estate Broker (Crescent City Living LLC) almost 9 years ago

JL ---- you are right -- so many "older" Realtors say all the time -- who this is just another cycle -- real estate just cycles -- I know they believe that, but I agree with you.

 
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Posted by Liz Loadholt, Realtor--Broker-in-charge - Trainer--Relocation Director Covering SC (Liz Loadholt- AgentOwned Realty- Covering SC) almost 9 years ago

Very true JLB ! And so we just go one day at a time take on each individual challenge in the most logical way, based on the people and facts of that transaction.

I often have 20 yr 'experts' tell me I should be doing things differently - the funny thing is that I doubled their production this year ?!??!

Cheers JL !

Posted by Sheldon Neal, That British Agent Bergen County NJ (Bergen County, NJ - RE/MAX Real Estate Limited) almost 9 years ago

JL

We can't predict the future and we should learn for the past.

Good luck and success.

Lou Ludwig

Posted by Lou Ludwig, Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC (Ludwig & Associates) almost 9 years ago

JL, you are so right!  We can learn from the past, but we can't expect that is will just repeat itself.

Posted by Gary Swanson (Century 21 Harris & Taylor) almost 9 years ago

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